US vs China: Power Index (coming soon)
Editorial estimates tracking the strategic competition across six domains shaping the next decade.
The US holds a meaningful but shrinking edge across six domains of strategic competition. American advantages in frontier AI, biotech funding, and commercial space remain substantial — but China is closing ground in every category simultaneously.
Sources & Methodology
Scoring: Each domain score is a composite of quantitative metrics (market share, production volume, funding) and qualitative assessment (frontier capability, ecosystem depth, trajectory). 50 = parity, 65+ = decisive advantage. Six domains equally weighted to produce the overall index.
AI: LMSYS Chatbot Arena, ARC-AGI, Epoch AI, MacroPolo AI Talent Tracker, Stanford HAI, CSET Georgetown
Energy & Climate: IEA, BloombergNEF, China NEA, US EIA, Wood Mackenzie
Economy & Trade: IMF WEO, BEA, NBS China, BIS, World Bank, US Treasury, China Customs
Robotics: IFR World Robotics Report, McKinsey, CSIS, Goldman Sachs
Pharma & Biotech: FDA, NMPA/CDE, ClinicalTrials.gov, PitchBook, IQVIA
Space: SpaceNews, NASA, CNSA/Xinhua, Bryce Tech, CSIS Aerospace
Editorial estimates based on trends through mid-2025, projected to April 2026. News items are illustrative scenarios grounded in real trajectories. Not for investment or policy decisions.